- Oil production today is primarily serving the cars on the road. The U.S. uses 9,000,000 barrels of oil every day. The entire world uses 90,000,000 barrels a day so we are using 10% of the world’s output.
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- The first predictions for “peak oil” production, when the supply of oil in the ground would be exhausted and production would decline was for the 1950’s. More oil and more ways of getting it have been found and today the peak is predicted for 2020. But, this may surprise you, it will not be because we are running out of oil, it will because demand will decline due to electric cars and highly efficient gasoline engines.
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- By 2020 there will be 20,000,000 electric cars on the road. That is only 2% of the total. So, the real hero is the gains in efficiency and cost competitiveness of the gasoline engine. There are major improvements in fuel economy using internal combustion engines. I will just call them all engines or gas engines. But, before getting into this let’s summarize where we are in electric cars;
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- Today there are 130 models available worldwide. There are 6 basic designs today:
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- (1) One uses a conventional gas engine with a Stop-Start that kills the engine whenever it pauses in traffic. A larger battery is required to start the engine and run the car for a little way after restart. This brief run allows the gas engine to reach better efficiency before engaging the wheels. ( 9% improved efficiency)
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- (2) A hybrid electric adds regenerative breaking , a traction battery used with the electric motor. The electric motor only supplements the gas engine it never powers the wheels by itself. ( Honda Civic).
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- (3) A full hybrid like Toyota Prius uses gas plus electric, plus nickel-metal hybride traction battery. 100% pf electricity is generated by the gas engine and the battery. Both the electric motors and the gas engine can power the wheels. Electric power is used up to 25 miles per hour then the gas engine takes over. ( 53 miles per gallon).
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- (4) A plug-in hybrid like the Volvo V60 all batteries and uses an socket to charge the batteries at an electric outlet.
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- (5) A plug-in hybrid like the Chevy Volt. The gas engine only used to generate electricity to supply the batteries and the electric motors that power the wheels. The gas engine never powers the wheels. The batteries will go about 30 miles on a charge then the gas engine generates electricity until the next recharge occurs. ( 94 miles per gallon).
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- (6) All batter y electric like the Nissan Leaf can travel about 100 miles on a single charge.
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- Why are these models not selling like hotcakes. Because they are too expensive. Lithium-ion batteries add $12,000 to the cost of the car. 13 cents / mile is the average cost for the American gas driven car. The electric car cost is not easily justified even though the electric car cost per mile is about 3 cents per mile.
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- Batteries are expected to drop in price as production volume ramps up. The will still cost $7,000 by 2015. Saving 10 cents per mile needs to make up this price difference. Of course, government using tax payer subsidies are another way to make up the difference.
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- However, the internal combustion engines are not standing still during this time. To remain competitive they are expected to double in efficiency by 2035. Here are some of the major changes in the works:
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- The Start-Stop mechanism already discussed will produce 9% efficiency improvements. Smaller engines with turbochargers will gain a 6% efficiency. Fuel injection optimizations will add 5% efficiency. In total gas engines should improve 30% in efficiency by 2020. None of these are breakthroughs that are not already known.
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- Pollution is another driver for electric cars and gas efficiencies. Even including the coal fired electric prost plant the all electric car will be 40% cleaner in CO2 that the gas engines.
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- Government standards in fuel economy will be 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025. Standards in CO2 emissions are mostly used in Europe, but also in the U.S. With more miles per dollar a rebound effect may be that people will drive more. More driving would offset more efficiency.
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- Whatever, the next 10 years will see a major change in the transportation on the road. How we power cars and trucks is on the move and oil consumption is destined to turn around.
- An announcement will be made shortly, stay tuned.
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707-536-3272, Wednesday, May 23, 2012
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