- 3266 - - GLOBAL WARMING - a long term trend? - Predictions are based on physics and chemistry that are so fundamental, such as the atmospheric greenhouse effect, that these resulting predictions that surface temperatures should warm, ice should melt and sea level should rise are robust no matter the assumptions.
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---------------------- 3266 - GLOBAL WARMING - a long term trend?
- Earth is a dynamic rotating sphere that changes the planet's climate constantly. The earth also experiences long-term trend of global weather conditions. How can we tell our Earth is actually warming and whether humans are to blame?
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- Climate has always changed before and the Earth's has achieved a radiation balance. Heat given off by the Earth's surface and atmosphere is pumped out into space. Sunlight is reflected back out into space by the oceans, land, clouds and aerosols.
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- For scientists to properly understand climate change, they have to determine what drives these changes within the Earth's radiation balance. Even before SUVs and other greenhouse-gas spewing technologies, Earth's climate was changing, so humans can't be responsible for all of today's global warming.
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- Climate changes in the past suggest that our climate reacts to energy input and output, such that if the planet accumulates more heat than it gives off global temperatures will rise. It's the driver of this heat imbalance that differs.
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- Currently, CO2 is imposing an energy imbalance due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Past climate change actually provides evidence for our climate's sensitivity to CO2.
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- Local temperatures taken as individual data points have nothing to do with the long-term trend of global warming. These local ups and downs in weather and temperature can hide a slower-moving uptick in long-term climate.
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- To get a real bead on global warming, scientists rely on changes in weather over a long period of time. To find climate trends you need to look at how weather is changing over a much longer time span. Looking at high and low temperature data from recent decades shows that new record highs occur nearly twice as often as new record lows.
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- A study published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters in 2009, found that daily record high temperatures occurred twice as often as record lows over the prior decade across the continental United States.
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- The last decade, 2000-2009, was the hottest on record. Big blizzards and abnormally chilly weather often raise the question: How can global warming be occurring when it's snowing outside? Global warming is compatible with chilled weather. For climate change, it is the long-term trends that are important; measured over decades or more, and those long term trends show that the globe is still, unfortunately, warming.
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- In the last 35 years of global warming, the sun has shown a slight cooling trend, while the climate has been heating up. In the past century, “solar activity” can explain some of the increase in global temperatures, but a relatively small amount. Solar activity refers to the activity of the sun's magnetic field and includes magnetic field-powered sunspots and solar flares.
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- Even during a prolonged lull in the sun's activity, Earth still continued to warm. The study found that the Earth absorbed 0.58 watts of excess energy per square meter than escaped back into space during the study period from 2005 to 2010, a time when solar activity was low.
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- About 97 percent of climate scientists agree that human-made global warming is happening. In the scientific field of climate studies, which is informed by many different disciplines, the consensus is demonstrated by the number of scientists.
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- While it is true that plants photosynthesize, and therefore take up carbon dioxide as a way of forming energy with the help of the sun and water, this gas is both a direct pollutant (think acidification of oceans) and more importantly is linked to the greenhouse effect.
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- When heat energy gets released from Earth's surface, some of that radiation is trapped by greenhouse gases like CO2; the effect is what makes our planet comfy temperature-wise, but too much of this and you get global warming.
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- Extreme weather such as heat waves, heavy downpours and droughts are expected to accompanying climate change. Recent research indicates this has begun happening.
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- Climate scientists say any positives are far outweighed by the negative impacts of global warming on agriculture, human health, the economy and the environment. A warming planet may mean an increased growing season in Greenland; but it also means water shortages, more frequent and more intense wildfires and expanding deserts.
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- The argument that ice is expanding on Antarctica omit the fact that there's a difference between land ice and sea ice. The Antarctic ice sheet has some gain in accumulation in the interior due to warmer, more moisture-laden air, but increased calving/ice loss at the periphery, primarily due to warming southern oceans.
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- The net change in ice mass is the difference between this accumulation and peripheral loss. Models traditionally have projected that this difference doesn't become negative (i.e. net loss of Antarctic ice sheet mass) for several decades.
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- Detailed gravimetric measurements, which looks at changes in Earth's gravity over spots to estimate, among other things, ice mass. These measurements suggest the Antarctic ice sheet is already losing mass and contributing to sea level rise.
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- Models have successfully reproduced global temperatures since 1900, by land, in the air and the oceans. Models are simply a formalization of our best understanding of the processes that govern the atmosphere, the oceans, the ice sheets.
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- Certain processes, such as how clouds will respond to changes in the atmosphere and the warming or cooling effect of clouds, are uncertain and different modeling groups make different assumptions about how to represent these processes.
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- Certain predictions are based on physics and chemistry that are so fundamental, such as the atmospheric greenhouse effect, that the resulting predictions that surface temperatures should warm, ice should melt and sea level should rise.
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- September 4, 2021 GLOBAL WARMING 3266
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--------------------- --- Sunday, September 5, 2021 ---------------------------
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