3811 -
SOLAR FLARE - can
we predict and protect? To start
off 2023 astronomers detected a massive explosion on the far side of
the sun, which may have spat out one of
the most powerful flares the sun can produce.
--------- 3811 - SOLAR FLARE - can we predict and protect?
- To
start off 2023 astronomers detected a
massive explosion on the far side of the sun, which may have spat out one of
the most powerful flares the sun can produce.
-
- A massive explosion on the far side of the
sun spat out a potential “X-class flare”,
one of the most powerful solar flares the sun is capable of producing.
The resulting solar storm will narrowly miss Earth, but the sunspot responsible
for belching it out could soon be pointed directly at our planet.
-
- The epic eruption was detected on
January 3, 2023 by the “Solar and Heliospheric Observatory” (SOHO), an
Earth-orbiting spacecraft. SOHO spotted a bright stream of plasma, known as a
coronal mass ejection (CME), that emerged from the sun's southeastern limb.
-
- The CME was likely given off by a hidden
far-side flare and registered as a C-class event, the third highest class of
solar flares.
-
- (Solar flare classes include A, B, C, M and
X, with each class being at least 10 times more powerful than the previous
one.)
-
- But
based on the size and strength of the visible CME, experts believe the hidden
outburst that birthed it was probably large enough to be designated as an
X-class flare.
-
- The most powerful X-class flares can
erupt from the sun with an equivalent force of around a billion hydrogen bombs.
If one of these flares hit Earth head on it could trigger widespread radio and
electricity blackouts on the side of the planet facing the sun and cause damage
to satellites in orbit around Earth. The resulting auroras would be so strong
they could even give nearby airplane passengers small doses of radiation.
-
- Scientists from the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) modeled the solar storm given off by the most
recent X-class flare and found that it would narrowly miss Earth over the next
few days. However, that doesn't mean we will stay in the clear for long.
-
- Astronomers believe the enormous flare
was emitted from a sunspot, dark, planet-sized regions that form in the sun’s
lower atmosphere as the result of magnetic disturbances, known as “AR3163”,
which rotated onto the far side of the sun around two weeks ago after spitting
out a flurry of mild CMEs on the sun's near side. Based on the potential power
of the hidden flare, experts think the sunspot has grown significantly in size
since it disappeared from view.
-
- When the recent flare erupted, AR3163
was predicted to reemerge onto the near side of the sun within two days based
on acoustic images, known as helioseismic echoes, which can detect
abnormalities on the hidden surface of the sun. On Januarey 5, the closest edge
of AR3163 began to appear on the solar horizon as expected. It will soon be pointed directly at Earth and
has the capacity to spit out more X-class flares, but the chances of a direct
hit are relatively low.
-
- Earth is currently at perihelion,
meaning that our planet is at its closest point to the sun. On January 4,
another CME given off by an M-class flare, which was capable of causing minor
radio blackouts, bashed into Earth right as the planet moved into its closest
possible proximity to the sun.
-
- Solar activity will continue to ramp up
as we approach the peak of the sun's 11-year solar cycle, which will occur in
2025. During December 2022 there were 24 active sunspots on the sun, the
highest number for more than seven years.
-
- Space weather has been known to cause
power outages and disrupt satellite function.
In Becky Chambers' 2019 novel "To Be Taught, If Fortunate," a
massive solar storm wipes out Earth's internet, leaving a group of astronauts
stranded in space with no way to phone home. It's a terrifying prospect, but
could a solar storm knock out the internet in real life? And if so, how likely
is that to happen?
-
- Solar storms, known as space weather,
occur when the sun releases an intense burst of electromagnetic radiation. This
disturbance throws off waves of energy that travel outward, impacting other
bodies in the solar system, including Earth. When the wayward electromagnetic
waves interact with Earth's own magnetic field, they have a couple of effects.
-
- The first is that they cause electric
currents to flow in Earth's upper atmosphere, heating the air "just like
how your electric blanket works,". These geomagnetic storms can create
beautiful auroras to appear over polar regions, but they can also disrupt radio
signals and GPS. What's more, as the atmosphere heats, it puffs up like a
marshmallow, adding extra drag to satellites in low Earth orbit and knocking
smaller pieces of space junk off course.
-
- Space weather's other impact is more
terrestrial. As powerful electric currents flow through our planet's upper
atmosphere, they induce powerful currents that flow through the crust as well.
This can interfere with electrical conductors sitting on top of the crust, such
as power grids, the network of transmission lines that carry electricity from
generating stations to homes and buildings.
-
- The
result is localized power outages that can be difficult to fix; one such event
struck Quebec on March 13, 1989, resulting in a 12-hour blackout. More
recently, a solar flare knocked out 40 Starlink satellites when SpaceX failed
to check the space weather forecast.
-
- Luckily, taking out a few Starlink
satellites isn't enough to mess up global internet access. In order to take
down the internet entirely, a solar storm would need to interfere with the
ultra-long fiber optic cables that stretch beneath the oceans and link
continents.
-
- Every 30 to 90 miles, these cables are
equipped with repeaters that help boost their signal as it travels. While the
cables themselves aren't vulnerable to geomagnetic storms, the repeaters are.
And if one repeater goes out, it could be enough to take down the entire cable,
and if enough cables went offline, it could cause an "internet
apocalypse,".
-
- A global internet blackout would be
potentially catastrophic. It would
disrupt everything from the supply chain to the medical system to the stock
market to individual people's basic ability to work and communicate.
-
- There are a few ways to protect the
internet against the next mega solar storm. The first is to shore up power
grids, satellites and undersea cables against being overloaded by the influx of
current, including failsafes to strategically shut off grids during the solar
storm surge.
-
- The second, less expensive way is to
work out a better method of predicting solar storms in the long term. Solar storms are also notoriously tricky to predict. Because while space weather has been going on
for thousands of years, the technology that is affected by it has only been
around for a few decades.
-
- Current technology can predict solar
storms up to two days before they strike Earth based on the activity of
sunspots, black patches on the sun's surface that indicate areas of high plasma
activity. But scientists cannot track solar storms the way they follow
hurricanes. Instead, they turn to other clues, such as where the sun is in its
current solar cycle
-
- The sun goes through approximately
11-year cycles of higher or lower activity.
Its next peak of activity, known as the solar maximum, should be around
2025. However, recent solar maximums have been relatively mild, leading
scientists to suspect that our sun may be in a prolonged period of lower
activity.
-
- The sun has been fairly quiet since the
90s. The last worldwide geomagnetic storm is the so-called "Carrington
Event" of 1859, during which auroras were observed as far south as Cuba and
Honolulu, Hawaii. Had the internet existed during this event, there's a chance
it would have been seriously disrupted.
-
- Hopefully, scientists will be able to
find a way to predict or minimize the impact of the next Carrington Event
before we find ourselves in an internet-less future.
-
January 1, 2022 SOLAR FLARE
- can we predict and protect? 3811
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--------------------- --- Monday, January 9, 2023 ---------------------------
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