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- This review tries to make the point that government regulations to improve car mileage is making cars less safe. The points are good but the trend is incorrect. Cars and drivers are safer when you take into account population growth and mileage driven. Here is the data after 3 rules of reason:
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- Statistics do not lie, but statisticians do, or ,those who use statistics for the answers they want to give.
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- The path to hell is paved in good intentions.
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- The law of unintended consequences can not be avoided.
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- The federal government had good intentions in bailing out the automobile companies as GM and Chrysler received $billions of federal loans as they still went bankrupt. Ford too received $5.9 billion low interest loans from the Department of Energy of which they have only paid back $0.2 billion to date.
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- The costs of these bailouts is child’s play compared to the costs of federal mandates requiring auto manufacturers to meet 52 miles per gallon by 2025. ( Corporate Average Fuel Economy -- CAFÉ regulations ).
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- Sounds great, 52 miles per gallon. What can be wrong with that?
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- Safety!
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- 42,000 motor fatalities occur each year.
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- ( This is true, but see note 1 for a better perspective.)
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- Many mileage improvements have been made but they can not meet the goal without making cars lighter and less safe.
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- Even with electronic stability controls, anti-lock brakes, air bags and seat belts , safety measures are not enough to counter act the push for smaller, lighter cars.
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- Fuel efficiency has benefited from direct-injection combustion, variable valve timing, sophisticated air intake and exhaust management, turbo-charging, aerodynamics, fine tuning engines with computer driven sensors and algorithms.
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- Transmissions have improved using 8 gears automatically maintaining engine rpm within and optimum range.
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- All of these improvements fall far short of achieving the 52 mpg federal mandate.
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- Autos must weigh less. It is simple physics. ( Kinetic Energy = mass * velocity squared). Autos have eliminated the spare tire. More plastic is used, aluminum instead of steel. Reducing mass. But, SUV’s are still heavy and guzzle gas
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- In 1960 Ralph Nader wrote the book “ Unsafe at Any Speed”. Ralph needs to update his book revealing the number of Americans dieing in lighter and environmentally friendly cars.
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- In 40 mph off-set-collision tests small cars are basically obliterated. Size matters, mass matters, smaller cars are just not safer.
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- Run the test yourself. You can get in a Cadillac Escalade or a Chevy Volt. 40 mph collision. Which car do you want to be in? Need I say more. You could be a victim of good intentions. The Chevy Volt, that tried to be saved by the bailout ,will not survive the impact. On top of that the lithium batteries will likely explode and burn on impact. It is the law of unintended consequences.
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- Here are car death statistics:
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----------------------1900 ----------------- 26
----------------------1910 ----------------- 1,599 ( There were 253 murders in US that year)
----------------------1920 ----------------- 12,155
----------------------1940 ----------------- 32,915 ------------ 23.6 per 100,000 population
----------------------1960 ----------------- 36,339 ------------ 20.4
----------------------1970 ----------------- 52,542 ------------ 25.3
----------------------1980 ----------------- 51,091 ------------ 22.7
----------------------1990 ----------------- 44,599 ------------ 17.9
----------------------2000 ----------------- 41,945 ------------ 14.9 Cost was $230 million
----------------------2005 ----------------- 43,443 ------------ 14.7
----------------------2011 ----------------- 32,367 ------------ 10.4 in a poor economy and high gas prices.
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- From 1960 to 2007 there have been roughly 40,000 traffic deaths per year. But, compared with the population growth that is an improvement of roughly 4% per year.
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- Still in 2010 we averaged 2,740 car deaths per month, 91 deaths per day. In the year 2000 Canada did a study claiming 1,064 Canadian lives were saved by seat belts and 55 were saved by airbags.
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- In the 10 years from 1990 to 2009 the US auto deaths were reduced from 44,599 to 33,808 That is a reduction of 2.8% per year. Measured in per 100,000 licensed drivers it went from 26.7 to 18. That is 0.0018% fatalities. And, a reduction rate of 4% per year.
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- California went from 5,192 to 3,081 deaths or a reduction of 5.4% per year. Measured in deaths per 100 million miles the reduction is 7% per year.
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- In the US there are roughly 10,000,000 car accidents per year with 40,000 deaths.
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--------------- In passenger cars -------- 24,100 ------------ 13,100 ------- down 6.3%
-------------- On motorcycles ---------- 3,200 ---------------4,500 -- --- up 3.4%
-------------- Pedestrians --------------- 6,500 -------------- 4,100 ------- down 4.7%
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- Overall, the conclusion is that cars are definitely safer. But they are only half way to the 52 mpg federal mandate. Will what auto manufacturers do next to improve mileage continue to improve safety. I don’t see how. Like the Senate we need a budget to set priorities. Most important to least important. There will be many priorities on the list. Hundreds of priorities ranging from driver training to DUI laws. Thoughtful decisions need to be made on which ones are funded, executed ,with all things considered. Even the unintended consequences need to be considered. An announcement will be made shortly , stay tuned.
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RSVP, please reply with a number to rate this review: #1- learned something new. #2 - Didn’t read it. #3- very interesting. #4- Send another review #___ from the index. #5- Keep em coming. #6- I forwarded copies to some friends. #7- Don‘t send me these anymore! #8- I am forwarding you some questions? Index is available with email upon request. Some reviews are at http://jdetrick.blogspot.com Please send feedback, corrections, or recommended improvements to: jamesdetrick@comcast.net. ---- “Jim Detrick” -- www.facebook.com, -- www.twitter.com, -- 707-536-3272 Tuesday, January 22, 2013
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