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--------------------- - 1625 - What do we do about Renewable Energy?
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- - California Democrats and Environmentalists envisioned 33% of America's energy would be using renewable sources by the year 2000. Missed that one! Then in 2008 Al Gore claimed the transformation will occur in 10 years. Missed out one! As of 2012 use of fossil fuels has declined one percentage point from 88% to 87%.
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- Total renewables represent 9.39% of US energy but only 3.3% of this is "new renewables“. Of the 97,000,000,000,000,000 BTU, (10^15), or, 10,300,000,000,000,000 joules, (10^16), of U.S. energy the major renewables are hydroelectric and wood-burning. 3.25% and 2.04%. Yes, wood-burning from lumber operations is 2.04 % of US energy consumption.
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------------------ Ethanol or biofuels is 2%
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------------------ Wind is 1.19%
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----------------- Solar is 0.16 %
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- The biggest transition today is not to solar and wind, but, to natural gas created by technologies in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking".
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- In the U.S. coal consumption dropped by 20%
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- Crude oil consumption down 7%.
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- But, natural gas is up by 14%.
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- Coal still generates 33% of U.S. electricity.
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- In a 19th-century our energy came from wood, charcoal, and straw. Coal started its transition in 1840 but did not reach of its 50% share until 1960 in the US.
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- France reached the 50% point with coal in 1875
- Japan in 1901
- Russia in 1930
- China in 1965
- India in 1970
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- The transition from coal to oil began in 1915. Oil did not surpass coal until 1964.
Natural gas is the new energy transition from oil. In Russia natural gas surpassed oil in 1984. In the UK it surpassed oil in 1999.
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- Natural gas transitions started in 1930 it reached 25% of the world's energy in 1985.
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- Each of these transitions takes 2 to 3 generations, 50 to 75 years. Unless there is a real "spoiler" like inexpensive nuclear power, or, massive energy storage capacity for wind and solar, expect these renewables to take at least another 20 years before they effectively transition out of fossil fuels.
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- The only effective massive energy storage capacity today is pumping water up to reservoirs to be released through electric turbines. The process is a net loss in energy. But, it is necessary because the wind doesn't always blow and the Sun doesn't always shine.
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- California Democrats and Environmentalists need to resist picking winners and losers. Politicians need to let the free market work finding the right innovations that will succeed in the long term. Government can help by funding a variety of research and development activities not knowing which one is going to succeed.
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- Stop the "social engineering" with unnecessary subsidies. Let prices reflect the real costs, including long-term environmental and health costs. The reality check must be long-term and “total” costs. The total return-on-investment will likely be in improved "efficiency" with existing technologies and not always with new innovations.
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- There is a limited supply of petroleum products. Regardless of how long they last prices are going up. Solar is the fundamental source of energy. Why not tap it directly. Solar energy striking the planet for 40 minutes is equivalent to the world's total energy consumption for an entire year. The 250,000 square miles in the Southwest receives 4,500,000,000,000,000,000 BTU's a year. Converting just 2.5% of this energy is equivalent to all of U.S. consumption in 2006.
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- To fully utilize a solar energy source we need direct current transmission lines to get electricity to where it is used.
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- We want electricity prices at 5 cents per kilowatt hour.
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- Solar, wind, biomass, geothermal should all be developed. The cost to taxpayers is estimated at $400 billion over 40 years, ($10 billion per year on average), to be at 100% renewables by the year 2050.
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- If we can reach the 5 cents per kilowatt hour goal , 300 coal-fired power plants and 300 natural gas plants would obsolete themselves at these prices.
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- Solar cells are thin film substrates. The cheapest is cadmium tethoride. To meet the goal solar cells would need to be 14% efficient in electricity conversion and be installed at $1.20 per watt capacity. Today the cost is about $4.00 per watt.
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- To get 3,000 gigawatts of power we need 30,000 square miles of photovoltaic arrays. Sounds like a lot but that is less land than today is used for coal plants and coal mining. The main area of progress needed is to get greater efficiencies and get costs lower. Excess energy would need to be stored in compressed air underground caverns.
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------------------------ U.S Fuel Consumption -----------------------------------------
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--------------------------------- ---- 2007 ---- 2050 without plan ---- 2050 with plan
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- Oil 10^9 barrels ---------------- 6.9 -------------10.9 --------------------2.7 -----
- Gas 10^12 ft^3 ---------------- 22.2--------------35.4 ------------------11.4 -----
- Coal 10^9 tons ----------------- 1.2 --------------1.9 ---------------------0.5 -----
- Carbon Dioxide 10^9 tons --- 6.9 ------------10.9 ---------------------2.7 -----
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- - The U.S. desperately needs to modernize its electric grid. Government run utilities need to compete with private run innovators. The U.S. needs 22,700 miles of new transmission lines, a 14 percent increase. There are 160,000 miles of high-voltage lines existing currently. More lines will keep voltage stable across the system because electricity can be continuously rerouted to where it is being used.
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- More lines can route electricity to storage in batteries. Every garage with an electric car could be storage for electricity. We could use flywheels, compressed air chambers, water pumped up to higher reservoirs, molten salt tanks, and other innovations to store electric power.
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- Transferring power at higher voltages will also improve efficiency:
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------------- A 100 mile at 345 kilovolts ----- loses 19.8 megawatts due to heat.
------------- A 764 kilovolt line ---------------------- loses 3.45 megawatts.
------------ A 1100 kilovolt line --------------------- loses 1.91 eight watts.
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- Direct transmission lines are best for point-to-point transmission. DC is like a closed pipe. AC, alternating current, follows the path of least resistance buzzing along random wires and trickling down streams of water. DC lines can take underwater routes. San Francisco uses a 53 mile line along the bottom of San Francisco Bay.
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- DC has an advantage on long lines. It has a disadvantage on short lines because converter stations are needed to convert back to AC.
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- - A totally different energy storage is to heat molten salt during the day. Extract the heat creating steam during the night. The system works only on 24 hour cycle.
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- Putting this all together for 100 percent renewable energy:
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---------------------- 2.9 terawatts -------- solar power plants -----
---------------------- 7.5 terawatts -------- compressed air storage-----
---------------------- 2.3 terawatts -------- solar mirror power -----
---------------------- 1.3 terawatts -------- solar on buildings -----
---------------------- 1.0 terawatts -------- wind --------------------
---------------------- 0.2 terawatts -------- geothermal -------------
---------------------- 0.25 terawatts -------- biomass ----------------
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------------------------------------ 100% --------------- renewable energy.
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- Solar thermal uses sunrays to generate steam to drive turbines. It takes two years to build one of these systems. It takes 15 years minimum to build a nuclear power plant. That is difference of seven cycles of innovation. A better investment opportunity involves more innovation. The more cycles we have the faster we innovate.
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- The problem with corn ethanol as a biofuel is the more you make, the higher the cost of feedstock. Not a good competition to have. However, cellulose ethanol uses cornstalks and many other plants that do not compete with food crops. Innovation is needed to commercialize these processes.
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- - A single car puts 4 tons of carbon dioxide in the air every year. If we could paint roofs white we could increase reflected light by 10 percent and offset 150 billion tons of carbon dioxide. That is equivalent to taking every car off the road for 50 years.
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- Greater reflection means less absorption. Buildings would use less air-conditioning. The trick is to replace roofs, installing new roofs, with materials having high solar reflectance which cost the same.
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---------------------------- White roofs? How about rusty roofs?
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- - Rust can be used as a solar cell. Photovoltaic solar cells use silicon-based materials never thinking of iron oxide. Silicon is 15 to 20 %efficient in converting sunlight to electricity. Rust on glass is only 3.6 % efficient.
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- Solar cells are not a fuel for cars. Electricity has to be stored in expensive lithium ion batteries. The better choice with 170 times more energy per pound is to convert photovoltaic cells into hydrogen fuel. Use electrolysis that splits water into hydrogen and oxygen , H2O.
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- Silicon atoms need 1.11 electron volts to energize and electron.- Splitting water requires 1.23 electron volts to free electron. Iron oxide produces 2.1 electron volts, more than enough voltage and it is dirt cheap.
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- Problem: Iron oxide does not conduct electricity very well. To solve this add a thin layer of titanium dioxide. The next trick is to make the rust layer thin enough to allow electrons to escape, say 20 nanometers thick. Thinner is better. Problem: A 20 nanometer layer absorbs only 18 percent of the photons. If it is 1,000 nanometers thick it absorbs nearly 100 percent. Thicker is better.
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- - A 30 nanometer compromise is only 4.9 % efficient. Solution: It's cheap. Use a lot of it. Acres could be dedicated to electrolyze filtered wastewater. Problem: Separating hydrogen and oxygen is effectively creating a bomb.
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- Maybe fields of rust could make electricity during the day and hydrogen fuel during the night? Are we entering the age of rust?
- The whole scenario is dependent on energy return -on- investment. We need a liquid fuel with a return -on- investment of at least 5%. These numbers in the table below show the % ROI using the total costs from mining and drilling to the transportation and burning of liquid fuels.
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------------------------- Oil --------------- 69 million barrels / day ------- 16% ROI
-------------------- Sugar Ethanol ------- 0.4 million barrels / day ------- 9% ROI
---------------------- Tar Sands ---------- 1.6 million barrels / day -------- 5% ROI
-------------------- Heavy CA Oil -------- 0.3 million barrels / day ------- 4% ROI
-------------------- Corn Ethanol --------- 1.0 million barrels / day ------- 1.4% ROI
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- You can see it is hard to beat cheap oil. But, as we run out of this precious resource we are forced into other alternatives.
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- Compare these return-on-investments with creating electric power:
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------------------ Hydroelectric ------ 3.5 petawatt hours------- 40% ROI
-------------------- Wind -------------- 0.3 petawatt hours------- 20% ROI
-------------------- Coal ---------------- 8.7 petawatt hours------- 18% ROI
---------------- Natural Gas ------------ 4.8 petawatt hours------- 7% ROI
------------------- Solar ---------------- 0.03 petawatt hours------- 6% ROI
----------------- Nuclear ---------------- 2.8 petawatt hours------- 5% ROI
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- Hydroelectric is by far the best alternative, but, we do not have much high water left. And mother nature’s rains raise the water to reservoirs, but, if there is not rain we have to pump the water to higher levels at a net loss of energy. But, that may still be a good alternative to solve the intermittent power generation of wind and solar.
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- Another comparison is to the amount of miles driven using a gig joule of energy:
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----------------- Gasoline ----------------------- 3,600 miles
----------------- Ethanol ------------------------ 2,000 miles
----------------- Tar Sands Oil ----------------- 1,100 miles
----------------- Heavy CA Oil ------------------- 900 miles
----------------- Corn Ethanol -------------------- 300 miles
----------------- electric grid ------------------- 6,500 miles
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- You can see gasoline is hard to beat. As we run out of cheap oil we have to keep using more expensive alternatives. You can not beat the electric grid for the best return on investment.
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- Free enterprise with opportunities for individual success, widely distributed, and short cycled is the best scenario. Limited government should stick to funding “ basic” research and regulations should be those required for worker and consumer safety.
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------ www.twitter.com or cell: 707-536-3272 ------ Monday, December 30, 2013
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