- 4585 - SEA LEVEL RISING - how fast are predictions? - Satellites are tracking the ongoing sea level rise swamping Pacific Island nations. The small island nations of the South Pacific are facing the harsh reality of sea level rise. Within 50 years they will be swamped by rising seas linked to climate change.
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- SEA LEVEL
RISING - how fast are predictions?
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- Satellites were used to predict rising ocean
levels. According to their data, Pacific nations such as Tuvalu, Kiribati, and
Fiji will experience an increased rise in sea levels. That threatens the homes
and livelihoods of millions of people.
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- The team's job is to improve our
understanding of sea-level change over time. The members analyzed the South
Pacific threat at the request of the affected nations and coordinated with the
U.S. State Department. They created high-resolution maps showing which areas of
different Pacific Island nations would be vulnerable to high-tide flooding. The
maps outline the potential for flooding. In addition, they take into account
different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, ranging from best-case to
business-as-usual to worst-case.
-
- A combination of space-based and
ground-based measurements can yield more precise sea level rise projections.
That should give an improved understanding of the impacts on countries in the
Pacific. Still, it’s one thing to create predictive models and share that data
with affected nations. It’s quite another to actually experience the gradual
rise of sea levels as the people of the South Pacific islands and other
low-lying areas along the world’s coastlines.
-
- The data being used comes from measurements
by satellites, shipboard and airborne instruments, and supercomputer analysis.
The result is a more precise assessment of sea levels and their rise and fall
over time. Using this data.
-
- Sea level rise is based on a number of
factors, including melting of glaciers and other ice packs and ocean warming
related to pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Based on the data from
NASA satellites, the Pacific Islands most at risk will see at least a 15-cm sea
level rise by 2050. That’s nearly an order of magnitude higher than all Pacific
Island nations experience now.
-
- To give you an idea of how that will affect
specific places, Tuvalu currently sees less than five high tide flood days per
year. By 2050, residents will experience at least 25 flood days each year.
Kiribati will see 65 flood events. The maps produced by the NASA-led team for
these and other islands should help these nations plan for future flood
mitigation efforts.
-
- Not every area in the world experiences the
same amount of flooding. Local conditions and coastlines contribute to
area-specific floods. The impact that 15 centimeters of sea level rise will
have varies from country to country. Some regions will see nuisance flooding
several times a year in flat or low-lying areas. Others face inundation for
longer periods with higher amounts of water.
-
- The impacts of sea level rise will vary
from place to place and depend on topography, shapes of coastlines, and other
factors. Better predictive tools will help scientists understand where sea
levels will rise the most and share that information with affected populations.
Researchers would like to combine satellite data on ocean levels with
ground-based measurements of sea levels at specific points, as well as with
better land elevation information.
-
- The combination of space-based and
ground-based measurements can yield more precise sea level rise projections and
an improved understanding of the impacts on countries in the Pacific. Still,
it’s one thing to create predictive models and share that data with affected
nations. It’s quite another to actually experience the gradual rise of sea
levels as the people of the South Pacific islands and other low-lying areas
along the world’s coastlines.
-
- People in these regions experience
different types of threats from the oceans. Flooding can occur when the ocean
inundates the land during tropical storms, typhoons, and hurricanes. It can
also happen during exceptionally high tides, called king tides.
-
- Another avenue for flooding is saltwater
intrusion into underground areas. That pushes the water table to the surface.
-
- Places like Tuvalu will benefit from better
tools to predict sea level rise. It’s not just a matter of preventing flooding,
but one of a nation’s survival now and over the next few decades. The future of the young people of Tuvalu is
already at stake. Climate change is more
than an environmental crisis. It is about justice, survival for nations like
Tuvalu, and global responsibility.
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-
October 23, 2024 SEA
LEVEL RISING - how
fast are predictions? 4585
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--------------------- --- Thursday, October 24,
2024
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