- 4586 - METEORITES AND ASTEROIDS - potential impacts. - Four "potentially hazardous" space rocks, which are between 100 and 580 feet across, will all make their closest approaches to Earth within less than 12 hours of one another on Thursday October 24, 2024. Two of them were only discovered earlier this month.
--------------------------- 4586
- METEORITES AND
ASTEROIDS - potential impacts
-
- A quartet of particularly hefty asteroids,
including two that were discovered earlier this month and another that is as
tall as a skyscraper, will make their closest approaches to Earth on Thursday,
October 24, all within 12 hours of one
another. The "potentially hazardous" space rocks will all get
similarly close to our planet, but pose zero threat to life on Earth.
-
- The first asteroid to make its closest
approach will be “2015 HM1", the smallest of the four space rocks at
around 100 feet across. It will reach its closest point to our planet at around
0:36 a.m. EDT when it reaches a minimum distance of 3.4 million miles from
us. That’s roughly 14 times the average distance between Earth
and the moon.
-
- The next visitor will be the roughly
170-foot-wide space rock “2024 TP17”, which will make its closest approach at
around 4:20 a.m. EDT and will get to within 2.9 million miles of our planet.
-
- The final two asteroids, “2002 NV16” and
“2024 TR6”, will make their closest approaches within just four minutes of each
other. 2002 NV16, which is around 580 feet across, making it the largest of the
four, will reach a minimum distance of 2.8 million miles at around 11:47 a.m. EDT. It will be quickly followed by the
150-foot-wide asteroid 2024 TR6, which will come within 3.5 million miles of
Earth at 11:51 a.m. EDT.
-
- The largest asteroid of the incoming
quartet, 2002 NV16, will reach a minimum distance of 2.8 million miles from
Earth, which is slightly closer than the other three space rocks will get to
us.
-
- Two of the four asteroids, 2024 TR6 and 2024
TP17, were only recently discovered: the former was initially spotted on
October 7, and the latter was first seen on October 12. That's not unusual;
astronomers spot around 2,000 near-Earth asteroids every year, most of which
are spotted as they near their closest approaches to Earth.
-
- The asteroids are all listed as potentially
hazardous because their orbits around the sun bring them within 30 million
miles of Earth. Most of them are not large enough to cause widespread damage if
they ever hit the planet (which they won't). However, the largest of the
incoming rocks, 2002 NV16, is large enough to wipe out a large city and cause
planet-wide effects.
-
- The asteroids will not be visible from
Earth. However, scientists may be able to capture radar images of the space
rocks, which could help reveal more information about the newly discovered
objects. Similar grainy images recently captured a bizarre snowman-shaped
asteroid as it tumbled past Earth and revealed an unexpected trajectory change
for a pyramid-size space rock.
-
- Some of the approaching asteroids will make
even closer flybys of Earth over the next few decades: 2024 TR6 will return on
August 5, 2039, when it will reach a minimum distance of 1.2 million miles from
our planet; and 2024 TP17 will get to within 1.3 million miles of Earth on
October 25, 2040.
-
- 66 milllion years ago, Earth was struck by a
city-size asteroid. The impact released the energy equivalent to the detonation
of 72 trillion tons of TNT, carving a 100-mile-wide scar in what is now
Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula.
-
- The most infamous effect of this asteroid,
named the “Chicxulub impactor”, was the death of the nonavian dinosaurs along
with around three-quarters of Earth's species in an event called the
“Cretaceous-Paleogene extinction”.
-
- In an effort to prevent similarly
catastrophic collisions, NASA's “Center for Near Earth Object Studies” (CNEOS)
operates the Sentry impact-monitoring system, which continuously performs
long-term analyses of possible future orbits of potentially hazardous
asteroids. Here are the five asteroids that pose the greatest risk to Earth.
-
- 1. Bennu.
Size: 0.30 mile. Mass: 74
million tons. Discovered in September,
1999 and officially designated "101955 Bennu (1999 RQ36)," the
near-Earth asteroid Bennu currently poses the greatest risk of impacting our
planet, but fortunately, not for some time. NASA scientists calculate that when
Bennu makes a close approach to Earth on Septembr 24, 2182, there is a 0.037% —
or 1 in 2,700 — chance that the asteroid will strike our planet.
-
- This carbon-rich asteroid is believed to
have broken away from a larger asteroid between 2 billion and 700 million years
ago. On September 24, 2023, NASA's OSIRIS-REx spacecraft returned a sample of
Bennu to Earth, and the space rock has been analyzed by teams of researchers
across the globe.
-
- Early results suggest that Bennu contains
the building blocks of life, including the simple amino acid glycine, as well
as many water-bearing minerals. This suggests Bennu's parent body witnessed
many water-related episodes before eventually fracturing.
-
- If Bennu impacted Earth, it would release
the energy equivalent to the detonation of 1.4 billion tons of TNT, causing
regional destruction but lacking the potential to cause global devastation. If
it were to impact a densely populated area, Bennu could cause millions of
deaths.
-
- 2. “29075 (1950 DA)” Size: 0.81 mile. Mass: 78 million tons. The second-riskiest object is the asteroid
was lost after its initial discovery in February 1950 and rediscovered 50 years
later. “1950 DA” is believed to be a loose-rubble-pile asteroid with high
iron-nickel content. Currently, 1950 DA has a 0.0029% — or 1 in 34,500 — chance
of impacting Earth on March 16, 2880.
-
- If 1950 DA were to hit Earth, it would
release the energy equivalent to 75 billion tons of TNT. This isenough to trigger a global catastrophe
that could potentially wipe out humanity.
-
- 3.
“2023 TL4 Size: 0.20 mile. Mass: 47 million tons. This asteroid was discovered in 2023. It shows that a newfound space object can
immediately become one of the most potentially hazardous asteroids. From
observations collected between October 8 and Octo 19, 2023, astronomers
calculated that 2023 TL4 has a 0.00055% — or 1 in 181,000 — chance of striking
Earth on October 10, 2119. Should such an impact occur, 2023 TL4 would release
the energy equivalent to the detonation of 7.5 billion tons of TNT.
-
- 4. “2007 FT3”. Size: 0.21 mile. Mass: 54 million tons. 2007 FT3 is defined as a "lost asteroid"
because astronomers haven't seen it since 2007. This object's orbit is
currently not well constrained, but NASA predicts that the asteroid has a
0.0000096% — or 1 in 10 million — chance of striking our planet on March 3,
2030. The asteroid has a slightly lower probability of 0.0000087% — or 1 in
11.5 million — chance of striking Earth on October 5, 2024.
-
- Should such an impact happen in 2024 or
2030, FT3 would release the energy equivalent to the detonation of 2.6 billion
tons of TNT. That is enough to cause
massive regional damage, but not to trigger a global catastrophe.
-
- 5. “1979 XB”. Size: 0.41 mile. Mass: 390 million tons. Another lost asteroid, 1979 XB, hasn't been
seen for around 40 years and thus also has a poorly understood orbit. From what
CNEOS scientists do understand, the asteroid, which was first observed on
December 11, 1979, has a 0.000055% — or 1 in 1.8 million — chance of striking
Earth on Dec. 14, 2113. Such a collision would release the same energy as the
detonation of 30 billion tons of TNT.
-
- “99942 Apophis” ESA Herschel Space Observatory captured
asteroid Apophis in its field of view during the approach to Earth on January 5
and 6, 2013.nnSize: 0.21 mile.
Mass: 27 million tons.
-
- Discovered in June 2004, Apophis was
quickly identified as one of the most hazardous asteroids that could impact
Earth. But that changed in 2021, when a radar observation campaign better
constrained the asteroid's orbit. This led astronomers to conclude that the
1,100-foot-wide Apophis poses no risk to Earth for at least 100 years.
-
- Skywatchers will be able to watch Apophis
during its close approach in 2029 as it passes within 20,000 miles with
binoculars and telescopes, without the fear that its returns in 2036 and 2068
will threaten the planet.
-
- The idea of an asteroid strike is
frightening, but all of the space rocks on this list are listed as
"zero," or "white," on the “Torino Impact Hazard
scale”. Level 0, the white zone,
indicates zero risk of impact or at least a risk so low it might as well be
zero. This level applies not only to asteroids that will miss Earth but also to
small objects from space that will burn up in the atmosphere and thus pose no
threat.
-
- Levels 8 to 10, on the other hand, are in
the red zone, representing asteroids that will certainly collide with Earth,
with effects ranging from localized destruction (Level 8) and unprecedented
regional devastation (Level 9) to global climatic catastrophe (Level 10) that
may threaten the future of civilization as we know it.
-
- At the moment, there are no objects on the
“Sentry Risk table” about level 0. Bennu and 1950 DA don't have Torino ratings
because their predicted impacts are more than 100 years into the future. As
NASA states, "There is currently no known significant threat of impact for
the next hundred years or more."
-
- Of course, there still could be potentially
hazardous objects out there waiting to be found. Thousands of potential
"city-killers" and even some "planet-killers" may be hiding
in the sun's glare. This is why CNEOS is
ever vigilant in its search for near-Earth asteroids.
-
-
October 24, 2024 METEORITES AND
ASTEROIDS - potential impacts 4586
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------ “Jim Detrick” -----------
--------------------- --- Friday, October 25,
2024
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