- 2828 - EARTHQUAKES - Why Do I Have Earthquake Insurance? - The Pacific Tectonic plate has been moving lately. In 2011, Chile received an 8.8 Magnitude in February, Christchurch, New Zealand a 6.3 in February, Japan a 9.0 in March. Earthquakes appear to occur in bunches since 1900. Here is a review of record and predictions for the future.
--------------- 2828 - EARTHQUAKES - Why Do I Have Earthquake Insurance?
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- Japan’s quake on the 11 of March was the 4th largest to happen in the last 110 years. Here is a summary of the earthquakes that have occurred since 1900 with a Magnitude
> 8.0. What you see in this record is that quakes tend to occur in groups:
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------------------ 1905 - 1935 ------------------ Ecuador M 8.8
------------------------------------------------------ Chile M 8.5
------------------------------------------------------ Kamchatka, Russia M 8.5
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------------------ 1936 - 1951 ------------------ quiet and below < M 8.0
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------------------ 1952 - 1964 ------------------ Tibet M 8.6
------------------------------------------------------ Kamchatka M 9.0
------------------------------------------------------ Alaska M 8.6
------------------------------------------------------ Chile M 9.5
------------------------------------------------------ Kuril Islands M 8.5
------------------------------------------------------ Alaska M 9.2
------------------------------------------------------ Alaska M 8.7
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------------------ 1964 - 2004 ------------------ quiet and below < M 8.0
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------------------ 2004 - 2011 ------------------ Sumatra, Indonesia M 9.1
------------------------------------------------------ Indonesia M 8.6
------------------------------------------------------ Indonesia M 8.5
------------------------------------------------------ Chile M 8.8
------------------------------------------------------ Japan M 9.0
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----------------- 2011 - 2021 -------------------- ? > M 8.0
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- If quakes happen in groups is the Pacific Northwest the next to feel the Earth move?
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- The Cascadian fault zone off the coast of Washington, Oregon, and California is the spot in the United States with the biggest seismic hazard. Below Vancouver, Seattle, and Portland is the” Juan de Fuca Plate”. It used to slip eastward under the North American plate at a rate of 1.5 inches per year. But, it has not moved for the past several centuries. After being locked up for 100’s of years it must be ready to let go any day now.
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- Geologists put the chances for the quake between Vancouver Island and Oregon at 15% with Magnitude greater than 8.0 in the next 50 years. Between Oregon and California’s Cape Mendocino it is given a 37% chance greater than 8.0 before 2061. Using these same predictions for the entire Earth, there is a 63% chance for another 9.0 during this same time period.
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- Since 1900 the Earth has experienced 1,700 quakes greater than Magnitude 7.0
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------------------------------------------------ 70 quakes greater than Magnitude 8.0
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------------------------------------------------ 5 quakes greater than Magnitude 9.0
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- Geologists are measuring the tectonic plate slippages using GPS. Japan’s plate leaped 8 feet eastward on March 11.
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- Geologists also use the magnetic records found in the rocks on the ocean floor to record their movements relative to the Earth’s magnetic field overtime. They use this data to calculate the rate the new ocean crust is formed at the mid-Pacific Ocean Ridge.
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- Geologists can also compare rock samples from either side of a tectonic plate to see who far it has moved. The Bodega Gay Head, which is just 20 miles from my house, has been moving north for millions of years. 300 million years ago this big rock was in Baja California. Moving 2 inches per year times 3,000,000 years is 6,000,000 inches. That rock has moved 500,000 feet, or 590 miles. This is just another way Mexico is invading California, seismically.
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- Here are some more details about the March 11, 2011 earthquake in Japan:
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--------------------------- Magnitude 9.0
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--------------------------- 54 aftershocks > 6.0
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--------------------------- 3 aftershocks > 7.0
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--------------------------- the rupture in the Earth was 190 miles long
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--------------------------- the biggest slippage measured was 79 feet
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--------------------------- the biggest slippage estimated was 200 feet.
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--------------------------- the duration of the quake was 220 seconds.
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---------------------------- May 18, 2011 ------------------- what’s next?
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- ---------------------------- September 13, 2020 ------------------- Why do I live in California? On top of earthquakes we have forest fires started by lightning and arsonists. What next? We get hit by a comet?
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- September 13, 2020 1256 2828
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--- to: ------ jamesdetrick@comcast.net ------ “Jim Detrick” -----------
--------------------- --- September 13, 2020 --------------------------------------
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