- 4207 - SOLAR ACTIVITY - maximum in 2023? Signs the sun is gearing up for its explosive peak — the solar maximum. Experts believe the upcoming solar maximum could be more active and arrive sooner than previously expected.
--------------------- 4207 - SOLAR ACTIVITY - maximum in 2023
- Roughly every 11
years, the sun slowly transitions from solar minimum, when our star is a smooth
and calm ball of plasma, to solar maximum, when it becomes a chaotic, fiery
mass littered with dark, planet-size sunspots that spew out solar storms.
-
- During solar
maximum, the likelihood of Earth being bombarded by these stellar storms goes
up dramatically. Such solar storms can mess with radio signals, power
infrastructure, space missions and satellites in low-Earth orbit.
-
- The main way
scientists track solar cycle progression is by counting the number of sunspots
on our home star's surface. These dark patches are a sign that the sun's
magnetic field is getting tangled, which ramps up solar activity.
-
- Since the current
2023 solar cycle began, the number of visible sunspots on the sun has far
exceeded the number predicted. The
observed number of sunspots has outpaced predictions for 30 months in a row.
The first major sunspot spike occurred in December 2022, when the sun reached
an eight-year sunspot peak. And in June this year, the sunspot number reached
its highest value since September 2002, more than 20 years ago.
-
- Solar flares are
bright flashes of light and radiation launched from sunspots. Sometimes they're
accompanied by enormous, magnetized clouds of fast-moving particles, known as
“coronal mass ejections” (CMEs). The most powerful solar flares are “X-class
flares”, which are the least common type, followed by M-class and C-class
blasts.
-
- The number of
X-class flares is on the rise. There have already been 11 of these enormous
flares in 2023, including a surprise X-class flare from the sun's far side in
January, and another in February that launched a CME directly at Earth,
triggering radio blackouts. In comparison, there were only seven X-class flares
in the whole of 2022 and two in 2021.
-
- The total number
of X-class, M-class and C-class flares has also spiked: In 2021, there were
around 400 of these flares; in 2021, there were around 2,200; and so far in
2023, there have already been around 2,600, recorded by SpaceWeatherLive.com.
-
- During the
build-up to solar maximum, not only do sunspots become more common but they
also start to grow much larger. On June
27 of this year, a dark patch, named “AR3354”, emerged on the solar surface,
and within 48 hours, the sunspot's surface area had swelled to 1.35 billion
square miles, or 10 times wider than Earth.
-
- After growing to
its full size, AR3354 unleashed several large solar flares, including an
X-class flare that launched a CME, directly at Earth, which later caused a
short radio blackout and auroras when it slammed into our planet's magnetic
shield, the magneto-sphere.
-
- One of the most
visually stunning indicators that solar maximum is approaching is a rare
aurora-like phenomenon known as “airglow”. Unlike auroras, which form when
highly energetic particles from CMEs or solar wind penetrate Earth's
magnetosphere and excite gas molecules in the upper atmosphere, airglow is
produced by more gradual solar radiation, which becomes more intense in the
lead-up to solar maximum.
-
- During the day,
this radiation slowly ionizes or strips electrons from gas molecules in the
upper reaches of the atmosphere. But at night, the molecules regain their lost
particles and emit light as they do so, which creates slow-moving rivers of
green and red light in the sky. By June,
the number of airglow sightings began to increase and remained high in the
following months.
-
- While airglow has
become more common in the night skies, another phenomenon has dwindled thanks
to rising solar activity. “Noctilucent”,
or night-shining, clouds (NLCs) are made from atmospheric water vapor that
freezes into ice crystals. The crystals stick to particles of volcanic and
meteor dust in the “mesosphere”, the third layer of Earth's atmosphere. These
crystal clouds continue to reflect sunlight shortly after sunset, which makes
them shine in the night sky.
-
- The best time to
see these shimmering clouds is between June and August. But this year, there
were barely any NLC sightings because increased levels of solar radiation
warmed the mesosphere, meaning there is less water vapor available to form the
colorful clouds.
-
- As the number of
CMEs firing out of the sun increases, so too does the chance of a rare type of
solar storm known as a "cannibal CME." Cannibal CMEs are created when one CME
catches up to and engulfs another CME that was unleashed shortly beforehand,
resulting in one massive cloud of magnetized plasma. As these cannibalistic
storms require successive CMEs to form, they become much more common in the
build up to solar maximum.
-
- Before this year,
three cannibal CMEs had recently slammed into Earth. The first erupted in November 2021, the
second in March 2022 and the third in August the same year. But in July, the
sun released the most extreme version of these conjoined solar storms when a
massive CME devoured an unusual plume of "dark plasma" before
smashing into our planet.
-
- Sensors on Mars,
the Red Planet, have detected two major
solar storms: A massive CME that exploded from the sun in October 2021, which
was also detected simultaneously on Earth and the moon; and a "mystery
explosion" from a far side sunspot that launched a CME at Mars and
triggered Martian auroras.
-
- Scientists have
also started using NASA's Perseverance rover to keep an eye on the far side of
the sun to search for large sunspots that could spawn potentially solar storms
that may pose a threat to Earth and we would not otherwise see coming.
-
- A geomagnetic storm
is a disruption to Earth's magnetic field caused by CMEs or solar wind bashing
into the upper atmosphere. These storms often trigger vibrant aurora displays.
-
- Geomagnetic storms
can cause radio blackouts that blanket half of the planet for several hours and
cause problems for satellites in low-Earth orbit. One of the 2023 storms, which occurred on
March 24, was the most powerful geomagnetic storm to hit Earth in more than six
years and triggered auroras across more than 30 U.S. states, as well as unusual
optical phenomena including the aurora-like phenomena “STEVE” in the U.S. and a
blood red arc, known as a “stable auroral red arc” (SAR), in Denmark.
-
- Molecules of gas in
the thermosphere absorb a storm's excess energy, then emit that energy as
infrared radiation, cooling the thermosphere back down. But this year, because
the storms are coming back to back, the gas has not had a chance to cool.
-
- The thermosphere
naturally warms and cools in conjunction with the solar cycle. But the peak
temperature, which occurred in March, was the highest for almost 20 years. This
is a strong sign that the current solar cycle is more active than the previous
one.
-
- As the
thermosphere warms it also expands, which can create additional drag for
satellites in low-Earth orbit and pull them out of position. That increases the
odds of satellites colliding or falling out of orbit during the solar maximum.
-
- On April 20, 2022,
a rare "hybrid eclipse" occurred in the sky above Australia, which
provided observers with a chance to look at the sun's corona, the outermost
part of the star's atmosphere, poking out from behind the moon in the darkened
sky.
-
- During the
eclipse, a group of photographers created a stunning composite image composed
of hundreds of shots of the event. Their image shows the ghostly filaments of
the corona, which were much larger than they expected. This is another sign
that the sun is closer to solar maximum than initially thought.
-
- To further
highlight the sun's restless state, the star also happened to belch out a large
CME as the eclipse was taking place.
-
- As the sun's
magnetic field becomes more tangled and unstable, the star's plasma also
becomes less constrained to the surface and can often erupt without
warning. In March, such plasma fueled a
gigantic "solar tornado" the size of 14 Earths stacked on top of each
other that raged on the sun's surface for three days. The spinning cone formed
when a horseshoe-shaped loop of plasma got caught in a rapidly rotating magnetic
field.
-
- At its peak, the
fiery twister reached 111,000 miles above the sun's surface, which is around
double the average size of previously observed solar tornados.
-
- Scientists
recently spotted another unusual sight on the sun's surface: a "plasma
waterfall," also known as a polar crown prominence (PCP), which rose above
the surface of the sun on March 9 before raining plasma back onto the star.
-
- PCPs are mini
eruptions that get trapped by the sun's magnetic field and pulled back toward
the solar surface before they can escape into space. These rare waterfalls only
form near the sun's magnetic poles, where the star's magnetic field is
strongest.
-
- At its peak, the
PCP reached 62,000 miles above the sun's surface, which is the equivalent of
eight Earths stacked on top of each other.
-
- Continuing the
trend of bizarre plasma phenomena, on February 2, a gigantic halo of rapidly
rotating plasma, dubbed a "polar vortex," swirled around the sun's
north pole for around eight hours.
-
- The
never-before-seen vortex was created when a massive tentacle of plasma snapped
apart in the sun's atmosphere and fell back toward the sun, similar to how a
PCP forms. But scientists don't know exactly why the plasma stayed above the
sun's surface for so long.
-
- The number of CMEs
shooting out of the sun has increased alongside the rise in the number of solar
flares. But one of the most visually striking examples was an enormous
"butterfly" CME that erupted on March 10. The "butterfly wings" appeared
because the CME exploded on the sun's far side, meaning a large proportion of
the blast was out of view.
-
- Luckily, the CME
was pointed away from Earth. However, experts predicted that the cosmic cloud
may have bashed into Mercury and potentially sheared off dust and gas from the
closest planet to the sun because of its weak magnetic field.
-
One of the earliest signs that solar activity was beginning
to ramp up was a gigantic plume of plasma that launched into space following a
CME in September 2022. The enormous
fiery column reached around 1 million miles above the sun's surface and
traveled at a speed of around 100,000 mph.
-
- That lucky old sun
got nothing to do but to roam around heaven all day.
-
-
November 3, 2023
SOLAR ACTIVITY -
maximum in 2023? 4207
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------- Comments
appreciated and Pass it on to whomever is interested. ---
--- Some reviews are
at: -------------- http://jdetrick.blogspot.com -----
-- email feedback,
corrections, request for copies or Index of all reviews
--- to: ------
jamesdetrick@comcast.net
------ “Jim Detrick” -----------
--------------------- ---
Saturday, November 4, 2023 ---------------------------------
No comments:
Post a Comment