- 4205 - SOLAR ACTIVITY IN 2023. Solar maximum will arrive sooner and last longer than previously expected. This year, 2023. It's a pretty significant change. The prediction places “Solar Cycle 25's” peak of activity known as "solar maximum" between January and October 2024. The peak will be earlier, stronger and last longer than estimates made in 2019.
------------------------------ 4205 - SOLAR ACTIVITY IN 2023?
- The solar cycle
describes an approximately 11-year period of solar activity driven by the sun's
magnetic field and indicated by the frequency and intensity of visible sunspots
on the surface.
-
- Predictions on
when solar maximum will occur are based on long-term historical records of
sunspot numbers, advanced statistics and models of the solar dynamo which is
the flow of hot, ionized gases within the sun that generate our star's magnetic
field which in turn drives the solar cycle.
-
- NOAA’s Space
Weather Prediction Center released a revised prediction for solar activity
during Solar Cycle 25. The new Experimental Solar Cycle Prediction issued on
October 25 concludes that solar activity will increase more quickly and peak at
a higher level than previously predicted.
The updated prediction calls for Solar Cycle 25 to peak with a maximum
sunspot number between 137 and 173.
-
- The new prediction
is good news for eclipse chasers as the total solar eclipse on April 8, 2024
will occur near the solar maximum. During totality, when the moon completely
obscures the sun's disk, the sun's outer atmosphere (known as the corona) is
visible to observers.
-
- During heightened
solar activity, the corona is very active and observers may be able to see
solar prominences, gigantic loops of plasma extending outward from the sun,
appear as bright pink spots at the sun's edges.
-
- Accurate
predictions of solar activity are crucial as geomagnetic storms triggered by
plasma outbursts known as coronal mass ejections can affect electrical grids,
GPS signals, drag satellites out of orbit and pose a radiation risk to airline
workers and astronauts. Advanced warning of space weather events can help
industries implement safeguarding procedures to reduce the risk to both their
equipment and workers.
-
- When energetic
particles and magnetic fields are released from the sun during events such as
solar flares and coronal mass ejections, Earth can sometimes find itself within
the line of fire.
-
- When this happens,
our protective magnetic "bubble" known as the magnetosphere repels
harmful energy away from Earth and traps it in zones called the Van Allen
radiation belts. These donut-shaped belts of radiation can swell when the sun's
activity increases. But our protective shield
is not invincible.
-
- During
particularly strong space weather events which are more common during solar
maximum Earth's magnetic field is disturbed and geomagnetic storms can
penetrate the magnetosphere and lead to widespread radio and power blackouts as
well as endangering astronauts and Earth-orbiting satellites.
-
- One notable
example occurred in 1989 when a CME accompanied a solar flare and plunged the
entire province of Quebec, Canada into an electrical blackout that lasted
around 12 hours.
-
- However, not all
magnetosphere interferences are destructive, and one disturbance in particular
gives rise to a remarkable show — auroras. The phenomenon is known as the
northern lights (aurora borealis) in the Northern Hemisphere and the southern
lights (aurora australis) in the Southern Hemisphere and is triggered by
energetic particles being redirected toward Earth's poles and colliding with
atoms of oxygen and nitrogen in Earth's atmosphere.
-
- Solar activity can
have a large impact on our technological world which is why advanced notice and
accurate predictions are key to mitigating potential damage and of course, give
aurora chasers the information they need to capture incredible shows!
-
-
October 31, 2023 SOLAR
ACTIVITY IN 2023?
4205
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Wednesday, November 1, 2023 ---------------------------------
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