- 4439
- OCEAN TEMPERATURES
- control the weather? -
El Niño to flip to La Niña are the names of ocean currents in what could
be the hottest year on record. A quick
flip from El Niño to La Niña is coming soon, but what does that mean for the
U.S.? El Niño is likely to give way
soon, ushering in a quick switch to its opposite atmospheric and ocean pattern,
La Niña.
-
------------------------- 4439
- OCEAN
TEMPERATURES - control the weather?
-
- This climatological flip-flop will likely
mean a greater risk of major hurricanes in the Atlantic as well as areas of
drier-than-usual weather in the southern portions of the country. Globally, La
Niña usually leads to declining temperatures, but the lag in when the effects
take place means that 2024 will likely still be a top-five year for temperature
in climate history.
-
- El Niño and La Niña describe opposing
patterns in the trade winds that encircle the equator, blowing west from South
America toward Asia. In a neutral year, when neither pattern is in play, these
trade winds push warm water westward, which drives cool ocean water up from the
depths to replace it.
-
- When El Niño is in play, the trade winds
weaken, so the eastern Pacific, along the west coast of North and South
America, stays warmer. The effect is that the jet stream moves southward,
drying Canada and the northern U.S. but bringing moisture to the southern
portions of the U.S. -
- In a La Niña year, the trade winds
strengthen, pushing warm water toward Asia and increasing the upwelling of cold
water off the Pacific coast of the Americas. The jet stream moves northward,
drying the Southwest and Southeast and bringing wetter weather to the Pacific
Northwest and the Great Lakes.
-
- The El Niño pattern has officially been
active since June 2023, but NOAA's Climate Prediction Center now reports that
the pattern is weakening, with an 85% chance of a switch to neutral conditions
before June. La Niña is then expected to roar back, with a 60% chance of La
Niña conditions between June and August.
-
- Ocean measurements currently show warm
surface temperatures in the Pacific, but
below-average cold water beneath. Once that cold water hits the surface, the
switch will happen quickly.
-
- During El Niño, rising heat from the
eastern Pacific flows into the upper atmosphere, leading to stronger winds at
high altitudes. This creates vertical wind shear which is a difference in wind
speed and direction at the surface versus higher in the atmosphere. And
vertical wind shear can really act to tear apart hurricanes as they try to
form.
-
- During La Niña, the upper atmosphere winds
calm, reducing wind shear. This allows the convection of warm, moist air from
the ocean surface to form big storms. As
we move into La Niña, the atmosphere becomes more supportive of allowing storms
to bubble up and intensify.
-
- As a result of the expected La Niña and
current extremely warm Atlantic Ocean surface temperatures, they are currently
predicting a very active Atlantic hurricane season, with a forecast of 23 named
storms (versus the average of 14.4) and five hurricanes of Category 3.
-
April 22, 2023 OCEAN
TEMPERATURES - control the weather? 4439
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------ “Jim Detrick” -----------
--------------------- --- Tuesday, April 23, 2024
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