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- February 2013 is only 11 months away and there is an Asteroid 2012 DA14 heading directly towards us due to arrive on that date. Current calculations show it to be 60 meters in diameter. Its trajectory currently is calculated to miss us but to be within 16,700 miles over our heads. That my fiend will be a close call. The geosynchronous satellites that give us GPS are 22,000 miles up.
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- If that Asteroid should outgas or experience any other perturbation its trajectory could easily change enough to impact Earth. We know for certain that Earth’s gravity will change its trajectory as it passes us and it is due to have a return trip in 2056. So the next time it may be more dangerous.
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- The Earth’s gravity may have enough tidal forces to break the Asteroid up into pieces. But, if it hits us we just change a bullet hit into a shotgun blast. A 60 meter Asteroid traveling that fast has the energy of a single thermo-nuclear bomb.
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- We are already too late to do anything about it. We can only track it and estimate where it will hit or how close it will miss. If we were to launch an interception since we are not prepared it would take at least two years to prepare the mission. Maybe next time?
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- Blowing it to pieces would not be the best alternative. We would just get hit by all the pieces instead of the single rock. If we are lucky it may hit at such an angle as to burn up in the atmosphere. If we are not so lucky it may reach the surface and blow up like the Tungaska blast in Russia in 1908. The area was an unoccupied forest but asteroid leveled 830 square miles of trees. That is about the size of the country of Luxemburg.
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- If we had time to intercept the Asteroid the best alternative is thought to “paint” it. Strange as that sounds a paint job would change the Asteroid’s ability to reflect sunlight changing its temperature and altering its spin. These actions would change the course of the Asteroid and help assure a sure miss. But, 11 months is too late for that mission.
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- One lesson from this DA14 discovery is that spotting danger from space is still a lost art. And, even if detected early our response is only on paper. If we want to survive space asteroids we need better detection and a prepared mission ready and waiting to act.
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- In fact, the Asteroid trajectory is still under study and final accuracy is yet to be determined. February 2013 is not that far away. We may have a new President by then and he might put a higher priority on Asteroid Defense over Global Warming. An announcement will be made shortly, stay tuned.
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707-536-3272, Tuesday, March 13, 2012
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