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- A total system for competitive decision making. The framework for the complete thought process in problem solving.
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----------------------- Root Cause Analysis
----------------------- Option Analysis
----------------------- Risk Analysis
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- Think to win. If everybody is thinking the same, someone is not thinking.
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------------------------ ROOT CAUSE ANALYSIS
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- WHY: Understanding of why things happen is a fundamental step in solving any problem and making the right decision.
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- Root cause analysis is used whenever things have gone worse than expected - a problem - or better than expected - an opportunity.
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- Anytime there is a gap between the facts and what is expected effective action needs a “true cause”.
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- Thinking in terms of deviations is important because it will ultimately allow you to arrive at the probable cause. It will help you to ask the right questions and collect the right data.
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- “Scanning” provides an early warning and opportunity detection.
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- Time is the enemy of the problem solver ……………. Data gets distorted, issues get lost, problems transform, feelings, opinions, emotions infuse the problem.
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- There are 7 steps, 1 “P” and 6 “D”s.
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- (1) Prioritize - list issues or problems in order of importance.
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- (2) Define - the problem ( opportunity) in general , observable, factual terms.
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- (3) Describe - the problem in terms of identity, location, timing.
Repeat this description as to what the problem is NOT.
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- (4) Distinguish - what is distinctive in each of the dimensions of the terms above.
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- (5) Diagnose - develop a hypothesis - based on the distinctions.
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- (6) Destroy - the hypothesis. Rigorously test the hypothesis to shoot it down.
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- (7) Decide - what to do next .
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----------------------------- Prioritize
----------------------------- Define problem, - observable , factual
----------------------------- Describe terms, - identity, location, timing
----------------------------- Distinguish each term
----------------------------- Diagnose - develop hypothesis
----------------------------- Destroy - the hypothesis
----------------------------- Decide the next step
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- Validate the cause at lower levels.
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- Too much management time is invested in looking at what’s wrong. Too much problem analysis. The real payoff lies in being pro-active , by scanning what is going especially well, then analyzing for the root cause of the positive deviations.
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- Root cause is a tool for focusing our experience, technical knowledge, intuition , judgment, in pursuit of identifying ad testing distinctions that reveal the true underlying cause.
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---------------------------------------------- OPTION ANALYSIS
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- (1) Smoke out the issues
- (2) State your purpose
- (3) Set Criteria
- (4) Set Priorities
- (5) Identify options
- (6) Test your options against your criteria.
- (7) Troubleshoot and refine your choice
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-- (1) Smoke out the issues. The first thing to do when making a decision is to decide whether the decision is even necessary. Is it important.
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- (2) State your purpose. Phrasing the decision purpose statement should broaden, not restrict, the relevant kinds of opportunities available.
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- (3) Set Criteria. What to achieve, preserve, or avoid through your decision. Separate the “ whats” and the “hows”. What to achieve versus how to achieve it. “ Whats” describe. “Hows” are ways or means.
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- (4) Set Priorities. To separate the absolute requirements, MUSTS, from the desirable objectives, WANTS. Rank the objectives on a scale of 1 to 10.
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- (5) Identify options. List ALL the ways you might meet your decision criteria.
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- (6) Test your options against your criteria. Rank all options that meet your MUSTS on how well they meet your WANTS. Multiply option rank times your wants rank.
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- (7) Troubleshoot and refine your choice. What could go wrong with the communication and implementation of your choice?
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- It is important to balance process and content. A meeting facilitator is often needed to just focus on process and stay out of the content.
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--------------------------------------------- RISK ANALYSIS
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- (1) Scan for and specify potential risks created by your decision and actions.
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- (2) Prioritize by two factors. Impact or severity of each risk. Chance or probability of each occurrence.
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- (3) Determine why each risk would occur. Pinpoint the most probable causes.
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- (4) Is there anything that can be done to prevent each risk?
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- (5) Specify protective actions that minimize the seriousness of potential risks. Preventative actions reduce the likelihood that a cause will happen in the first place - the real payoff.
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- (6) Develop communications plans , and
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- (7) Implementation plans for our decision
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- The whole process can be done in 10 minutes or 10 days.
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------------------------- Scan Risks
------------------------- Prioritize impact, probability
------------------------ Why each risk could occur
------------------------ Prevent each risk?
------------------------ Specify the preventative action
------------------------ Communications plan
------------------------- Implementation plan.
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- The real benefit is in having a process. Having a communication tool to keep a team together and moving one step at a time. Any process would probably work. But, we tend to free lance with no process visible. We loose the effectiveness and productivity of the team. GETTER DONE!
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- In the end, thinking rules the world. There are times when impulses and passions are more powerful, but, they soon expend themselves.
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- Thinking is the talking of the soul with itself.
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- In matters of conscience first thoughts are best. In matters of prudence last thoughts are best.
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- The happiness of your life depends on the quality of your thoughts. You gradually become as your thoughts.
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- All truly wise thoughts have been thought already thousands of times. To make them truly yours you must think them over again honestly, till they make a root in our personal experience.
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- The silent thought is the mightiest agent in human affairs.
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---- Comments appreciated and Pass it on to whomever is interested. ----
--- Some reviews are at: -------------- http://jdetrick.blogspot.com -----
-- email feedback, corrections, request for copies or Index of all reviews
- to: ------- jamesdetrick@comcast.net ------ “Jim Detrick” -----------
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----- 707-536-3272 ---------------- Saturday, March 18, 2017 -----
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