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------------------------------------ 2191 - Why Solar, Why Hybrids, Why Now
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- I will start with the Conclusion in this review and follow with the thought process. CONCLUSION: The U.S. needs flex-fuel hybrid electric cars on the road now. We can not wait for 20 years for the market to wean itself of precious oil.
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---------------------- We need electric power from Solar to power these plug-in cars.
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---------------------- We need flex-fuel that runs on alcohol as an intermediate substitute for oil in transportation until electric cars are perfected.
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---------------------- It is not just energy conservation, it’s security, it’s politics, it‘s good business:
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- In 2006 Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told the Senate, “We do have to do something about the energy problem. I can tell you the nothing has really taken me aback more, as secretary of state, than the way that the politics of energy is ..... warping diplomacy around the world. It has given extraordinary power to some states that are using that power in not very good ways for the international system, states that would other wise have very little power.”
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- Look what Russia is trying to do to the Balkan countries in eastern Europe. We are competing with China and India for the same energy. Rogue nations like Iran and Sudan can now buy themselves support from one third of humanity. Venezuela President Hugo Chavez has used his country’s oil wealth to buy political influence in the Western Hemisphere.
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- Oil’s strategic importance comes from it being run by a virtual monopoly. Only 2% of U.S electric power is generated from oil, yet, 97% of U.S. transportation is running on oil, making oil the lifeblood of the U.S. economy. The U.S, economy uses 25% of the world’s demand for oil yet we own only 3% of the oil reserves.
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- The U.S. debate has been “drill more” or “ use less”. Neither of these strategies will solve the problem, although they both can help a little. The OPEC cartel owns 78% of the oil reserve. It produces 30,000,000 barrels of oil per day and controls the worldwide price. For example: If Tehran decided to reduce its oil exports in retaliation for efforts to thwart its nuclear program the increase in price would be felt worldwide, regardless of which country you buy the oil from.
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- The U. S. is in nearly the same situation with natural gas. We own 3% or the reserves and we use 25% of the world’s supply. The major supply comes from Russia, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
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- We need to wean ourselves from foreign oil and gas now!
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- For less than $100 extra automakers can make virtually every car a flex-full vehicle capable of running on any combination of gasoline, ethanol, or methanol. These are alcohols refined from wasted chicken parts, coal, natural gas, corn, biomass, or prairie grasses.
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- Alcohol is more corrosive than gasoline so the $100 is for corrosion resistant materials added to the car. Automakers already sell these cars to Brazil. Brazil runs 90% of their cars on alcohol made from sugar cane. The U.S. for misguided political reasons puts a 54 cent per gallon tax on all ethanol imported into the U.S..
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- Methanol can be made from coal for 50 cents per gallon. It only has half the energy content as gasoline, but, it would be perfect for hybrid electric cars. Hybrids can have smaller, efficient flex-fuel engines that are used only as backup to powerful electric motors.
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- China is producing these plug-in hybrids today with a 60 mile electric range for $22,000. These hybrids powered with 80% alcohol and 20% gasoline have an equivalent mileage of 500 miles per gallon.
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- The U.S. needs to immediately deploy an open fuel standard and eliminate protectionism tariffs on ethanol. We need national security from OPEC’s growing stranglehold on the world’s economy. To start with our tax dollars should convert all cars bought by the government, the military, the post office, and by congressmen, all should have electric cars by law.
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- Once we have plug-in electric cars we need electric power plants that run on solar, not just coal. The entire world uses 16,000,000,000 watts of electricity to run the planet. The U.S. uses 3,975,000,000 watts, or 25% ( in 2005).
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- The Sun sends the land mass on Earth 120,000,000,000,000 watts. 7,500 times what the world needs. With 100 square miles of today’s solar cells we could entirely power the U.S. It would cost taxpayers $400 billion and by 2050 two-thirds of the U.S. electricity would be on solar. That is half the cost of the Obama’s stimulus package.
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- Of the U.S. total 3,975 billion kilowatt-hours in 2005, 2,780 billion kilowatt-hours came from burning fossil fuels, 932 was nuclear, only 343 was renewable energy:
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-------------------------- 343 from solar, wind, geothermal, biomass, and hydro (8.6%)
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-------------------------- 932 nuclear (23%)
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------------------------- 2,780 fossil fuels (70%)
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--------------------------3,975 Total Energy (100%)
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- If we meet our goals of converting 25% from fossil fuel to renewable energy in the next 25 years, here is how the picture changes:
--------------------- 2005 -------------------- 2030
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-- Renewable --- 9% ------------------- 24% ----------- 1,275 billion kwh
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-- Nuclear --- --- 24% ------------------- 18% ----------- 921 billion kwh
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-- Fossil Fuel ---- 70% ------------------- 59% ---------- 3,020 billion kwh
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-- Total --------- 3,975 ------------------- 5,216 billion kwh
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- This projection gets us to the “25% renewable goal“. It assumes no new nuclear. But you can see we still depend on fossil fuels, 79% from coal, and 17% from natural gas.
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- The 24% renewables have this detailed projection:
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--------------------- 2005 -------------------- 2030----------- billion kwh
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-- Photovoltaic ------ 1 ------------------- 65
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-- Thermal Solar ----- 1 ----------------- 143
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-- Wind -------------- 18 ----------------- 531
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-- Geothermal--------- 15 ------------------ 82
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-- Biomass ----------- 39 --------------- 139
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-- Hydro --------- --- 270 ---------------- 314
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-- Total --------------- 343 -------------- 1,275 ----------- billion kwh
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- The U.S. has less than 1% of its electric power coming from solar in 2005. Nevada Solar One is 250 acres of curved mirrors near Las Vegas. 182,000 mirrors following the Sun each day.
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- The mirrors reflect sunlight on to steel pipes filled with oil that heats to 750 F. The hot liquid goes through radiators to create steam to drove turbines that produce 64,000,000 watts of electricity. The efficiency is 21% , sunlight to electric current. But, the technology came from a Spanish company and the mirrors came from Germany. The U.S. is way behind in solar development.
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- Solar only works when the Sun is shining and needs a good energy storage mechanism. In Arizona the Solana Generating Station uses molten salt for energy storage. It can continue to make steam after the Sun goes down. It produces 280,000,000 watts for Phoenix and Tucson (by 2012). . For comparisons one spinning turbine in the Hoover Dam produces 130,000,000 watts. Hoover Dam has 17 turbines, a total capacity of 2,400,000,000 watts.
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- Photovoltaic solar cells are not as efficient as thermal solar. They are much more expensive and only 10 to 20% efficient today. New improvements by layering cells that work at different light spectrum and lensing to concentrate the light has got efficiencies up to 40.8%. Production is still far too expensive.
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- First Solar and Nanosolar are 2 American companies that are using thin-film semiconductors for photovoltaic that cost less, about $1.00 per watt. (See Review 995 “Breakthroughs in Solar Cells”, for details on this technology.)
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- Nellis Air Force Base near Las Vegas has the largest photovoltaic installation in the U.S. It generates 14,200,000 watts. This is ranked 25th in the world. Germany has the largest producing 5,000,000,000 watts.
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- In Germany they provide incentives for installing photovoltaic systems by guaranteeing an 8% annual return for 20 years after your initial investment. That is a pretty good return on your money.
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- In the U.S. we mandate by law electric companies to generate 25% of their electricity from renewables by 2025. Our politicians are lawyers. Germany’s politicians are businessmen.
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- Pacific Gas and Electric has already commissioned 1,800,000,000 watts of solar power in trying to meet this legal mandate. California idealists passing laws to save the planet. Why not pass business incentives to give every American the financial reasons to go solar for electric and flex-fuel for transportation?
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- Please write your congressmen in California and in Washington and tell them to put lawyers out of work and put businesses back to work. That would have the effect of putting all of us to work making better decisions. I can send you the numbers on the Clunker rebate program. Another example of Washington’s business sense. I hope this is helpful:
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- November 30, 2018. 1057 An Index of recent Reviews is available.
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--------------------- Friday, November 30, 2018 -------------------------
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