- 3020 - ENERGY an abundance of alternatives? The U.S. uses 4,000,000,000 kilowatts per year. The world 17,000,000,000 kilowatts. We need to pursue many different energy alternatives and let each one meet the market conditions for readily available, lowest cost energy.
------------------- 3020 - ENERGY an abundance of alternatives?
- We are all concerned about oil. There is less of it and it is harder to find. Prices are going up at the same time as the demand for energy is increasing. Population is increasing. Economic development for more of the population is increasing. We need more energy at lower cost. Oil is a diminishing source to supply it.
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- Solar Energy could be a key alternative to supplying 7,000,000,000 people with electricity if we could get costs down to 75 cents per watt and we used material that was in abundance.
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- Most Solar Cells are made from silicon. Silicon comes from silicon dioxide, SiO2. Silicon Dioxide is sand. That is an abundant source. But, it still cost $2.18 per watt after 50 years of development. Can we find better energy alternatives?
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- What people fail to realize is that the alternative energy sources are in the same boat as oil. Once most any alternative that grows its supply becomes limited by the abundance of the source. The source itself becomes an undesirable alternative.
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- Let’s look at a few examples: Take hybrid electric cars that rely on Lithium batteries. We use 30,200 tons per year. It costs $1 per pound. So, production is $60,400,000 per year. Our source is South America.
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- 17,000 tons of Lithium came from Chile and Argentina in 2008. The source is the salt water lakes that contain Lithium Carbonate. Bolivia has the biggest salt desert deposits but has not started mining yet. When we shift to battery powered cars in the U.S. these three countries will become the new OPEC.
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- Platinum is used in fuel cells combining hydrogen and oxygen to generate electricity. South Africa provides 78% of the world’ platinum supply. The world production is 220 tons per year at $1,580 per ounce. Or, $10,000,000,000 per year.
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- This single factory in South Africa shut down due to a power outage for one week in January, 2008, and the price of Rhodium shot up to $10,000 per ounce. Thieves in the U.S. are stealing catalytic converters from cars to recover the metal. (Platinum and Rhodium are chemically similar).
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- Rare earth metals like Gadolinium, Dysprosium, used in energy efficient technologies, Europium used in displaying brilliant reds in LCD TV’s, Neodymium used in magnets for hybrid car electric motors, Yttrium used in fluorescent light bulbs, all come from China (97%).
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- Yttrium used to come from Mountain Pass mine in California but U.S. mining became too expensive and environmentalists shut them down. World production of the rare earth metals is 117,00 tons per year at $68 per pound for Yttrium that equates to $15,900,000,000 per year. 97% from China.
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- Tantalum, used in electric storage capacitors, comes from the Congo. The Tantalum source is controlled by rogue militants that smuggle the metal on to the market. Armed smugglers assault women, enslave children, ravage forests, kill endangered gorillas and other rare animals in the production of this illegal trade. World production is 900 tons per year at $36 per pound that equates to $64,800,000 per year.
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- Indium, used in coating photovoltaic cells, comes from China except for 20% of U.S. imports that comes from Mount Pleasant in Canada, 40 miles north of the Maine border. World production is 625 tons per year at $300 per pound that equates to $375,000,000 per year.
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- Palladium, also used in energy storing capacitors, comes from Siberia in Russia. The source is considered one of the most polluted areas in the world. The factory emits 2 million tons of acid rain-causing sulfur dioxide per year. The snow is black, the air tastes like sulfur, and life expectancy for workers is 10 years below the average. World production is 225 tons per year at $355 per ounce. That is $2,550,000,000 per year.
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- The lesson we need to learn from this is that we should never depend on any particular source. We should pursue research and development and productivity improvements in a diversity of energy alternatives. We should pursue alternatives that have abundant material and can reach low cost goals.
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- We need a comprehensive energy strategy, not government subsidy of any chosen winner. Government should help fund R&D and not subsidize to significantly affect market conditions. A free market will help decide the best solutions for each geography and conditions that vary around the world.
- Solar Cells are made from Silicon Dioxide. That comes from sand and is certainly abundant enough. But it has trouble meeting the cost goals. Silicon is hard to separate from Oxygen. It requires an arc furnace that uses 24,000 watts per kilogram and gets only 98% pure silicon. Further processing gets to $25 per kilogram.
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- This all translates to $1.25 per watt. Then Silicon is brittle and easily breaks. It needs to be thicker and supported by glass laminations and rigid panels. Now, the Solar Cell is $2.18 per watt. Installed on your roof it is $8.10 per watt, $32,000 per typical home installation. ( A typical home in the U.S. uses 4 kilowatts.)
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- First Solar, a company in Canada, uses thin film technology with Cadmium Tellurium, CdTe, to make Solar Cells at a cost of $1 per watt. ( $ 6 per watt installed in the U.S., about $24,000 for a typical installation.).
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- If we stuck with DC current charging car batteries it could by $4 per watt, or , $18,750 per typical installation. This is a good start, but, it seems short of the abundance and lowest cost goals.
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- Nanotechnology has the potential to significantly reduce the cost of Solar Cells. They could by made from Iron Sulfide, or Foul’s Gold, Pyrite, which is abundantly available. The cells could be produced like rolls of newspaper and deposited on plastic for support.
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- The costs could be as low as 75 cents per watt for installations in developing countries that currently do not have electricity. A villager in China would pay $225 for a home installation that uses DC. The U.S. installation would cost more, use a DC to AC inverter, but still be less than $2 per watt installed, or $7,500 for typical installation. At that price there would be Solar Cells on most roofs in the U.S. tied into the electric grid.
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- The U.S. uses 4,000,000,000 kilowatts per year. The world 17,000,000,000 kilowatts.
We need to pursue many different energy alternatives and let each one meet the market conditions for readily available, lowest cost energy.
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- Remember, safety, security, pollution, are costs and all costs must be included. Abundance means no monopolies, lots of competition. Free markets in action. Government edicts are the most dangerous obstacle we have.
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February 3, 2021 ENERGY an abundance of alternatives? 1045 3020
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