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--------------------- 2670 - CORONA VIRUS - how fast is it spreading?
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- Let’s assume the CoronaVirus divide in two every 20 minutes. Assume none of these virus die in a 24 hour period. Prove that the volume of CoronaVirus would exceed the volume of the Earth at the end of the day.
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- Use the radius of the Earth to be 4,000 miles.
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- Dividing every 20 minutes is dividing 3 times per hour or 72 divisions in a 24 hour day.
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- That is 2 ^72, or 2 raised to the 72 power. 2^72 = 4.7*10^21. 2 raised to the 72 power is the same as 10 raised to the 21 power.
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- The volume of the Earth with a radius of 4,000 miles.
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- Volume: V = 4/3 * pi * r^3 = 268*10^9 cubic miles.
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- How big would the virus population be in order to fill the volume of the Earth.
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- Volume = 3.94*10^22 cubic feet. There are (5,280 feet) ^3 in a cubic mile.
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- Volume / number of virus = 8.35 cubic feet per virus.
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- There is no way a virus is that big. Therefore it is false to prove the volume of Coronvirus would exceed the volume of the Earth in a single day.
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- So, how many days would it take for the volume of bacteria to equal the volume of the Earth if they kept dividing?
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- Let’s estimate the size of the virus to be 20 nanometers is diameter . Let’s pick the biggest virus that is 20 nanometers in diameter to be 1,000 nanometers long. Volume of the virus is 3.14*10^-27 cubic meters.
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- Volume of the Earth is 268 * 10^9 cubic miles, or 76 * 10^21 cubic meters..
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- Number of virus needed to equal the volume of the Earth = 2.42*10^44.
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- How many doubling's would it take to get this many virus , 147 doubling's, 2 ^147.
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- With 3 doubling's per hour that is 49 hours or a little over 2 days for the virus to equal the volume of the Earth.
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- So it would not happen in a single day, but, the volume would exceed the volume of the Earth in 2 days. It is a geometric expansion.
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- Thankfully bacteria and virus do not live very long. Thankfully bacteria and virus have lots of predators and there is not enough food to keep that many alive. Thankfully we have vaccines that kill bacteria and virus before they can multiple like this.
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- Nature has a self-control feedback mechanism that keeps populations in control.
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- Except when we get a new virus that may not have enough natural predators or response to our available vaccines? Then we need extraordinary efforts to keep the geometric progression from continuing.
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- I hope my math is correct. Let me know if you find a mistake.
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- March 17, 2020 2670
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--------------------- Thursday, March 19, 2020 --------------------
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